Canterbury Tells

This past week, the Achbishop of Canterbury, England deemed much of the Nativity "legend."

No snow in Bethlehem, replace the kings with astrologers. Mary can stay, but she's likely no virgin.

Better still, was the Christian Broadcasting Network's response, "New Poll Says Most Americans Believe Stories in the Bible."

Most Americans believe the stories in the Bible are true according to new research by the Barna Group. The top story listed in the new survey is Jesus' birth to the virgin Mary. Seventy-five percent of adults say they take that story as the literal truth. Also, 68 percent of adults surveyed believe that Jesus fed 5,000 people with just five loaves of bread and two fish. Sixty-four percent of adults believe in the story of Noah's Ark and the flood that covered the earth.

The Barna Group? Nothing screams unbiased empirical rigor quite like faith-based survey design.

The Peculiar Discipline of Japanese Canines

Finally — evidence of the interspecies transmission of Confucian discipline.

Assist to TastyBooze.

The Bi-Modal Mr. Clemens

Per New York Times coverage of the Mitchell Report, Brian McNamee testified to serving as Roger Clemens' personal steroid injector:

Mr. Clemens had a 40-39 record from 1993 through 1996 and was not re-signed by the Boston Red Sox. The next year, he signed with the Toronto Blue Jays and began working out with Mr. McNamee (…) Mr. Clemens had two of the best years in pitching history in 1997 and 1998, winning the Cy Young Award in both seasons and also led the league in wins, earned run average and strikeouts (…) After Mr. Clemens declined to 14-10 with a 4.60 ERA in 1999, New York hired Mr. McNamee as assistant strength coach. During one stretch after that, Mr. Clemens won 27 games against three losses for the Yankees.

Damning on its face, but does the data back up such a claim? Utilizing training with McNamee as a proxy for steroid use, we did a basic t-test; our null hypothesis, “Rocket better on than off juice,” holds at 95% confidence, for a difference in Earned Run Average of -.953. A similar analysis also holds at 95% confidence for a difference in Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched of -.230.

But given the multitude of confounding factors, a roughshod comparison of averages is by no means conclusive. What could be, is that that there is no statistically significant difference in ERA, in mean or variation, between Roger’s first 12 seasons and last 12 seasons. In fact, the only extended subgroup of years statistically aberrant from the whole, is his 1986-1992 golden age with the Red Sox. However, this supports two opposing schools of thought.

Defending the Rocket, since he varied a great deal within any short span, we can’t presume that a particular surge in performance is resultant from steroid use. Condemning him, is the conventional wisdom that it just isn’t natural for a fastball pitcher to have symmetrical halves to a such a lengthy career — regardless of workout regimen and even for such a Clydesdale of a Texan.

We call for further study, including a regression analysis that tests the explanatory power of developing a splitter at 42.

Brooks Brothers: An Obamination?

Genius.


The caption, per Jezebel:

"What do you mean, there's a black man running for president? Of which country?"

(Sport coat, $548; dress shirt, $79.50; Repp tie, $75)

Full catalog here.

Mitt’s with Fred?

Queried on whether he believed global warming was a "serious threat and caused by human activity,” Fred Thompson refused to indicate by raising his hand. He declared “I’m not doing hand shows today.”

Romney, obviously wanting to make friends with the tall man standing next to him, promptly declared “I’m with him.”

Three cheers for primed responses. Must have been all the “I’m with Fred” t-shirts in the audience.

Did he actually want to discuss climate change policy, or was he just in character as the contrarian Arthur Branch?

Rudy'08: Are You Talking to Me?

Taken from the New York Times article "Citing Statistics, Giuliani Misses Time and Again." Suggested retitling: "Channeling DeNiro, Giuliani Misses Time and Again."

Disclaimer and Mission

Beginning this blog's titular inspiration, "Politics as a Vocation," Max Weber noted that his work would “necessarily disappoint you in a number of ways.”

In our maiden post, a similar disclaimer: we will necessarily, and unnecessarily, disappoint you in a number of ways. In fact, if you comment on how you find our posts disappointing, we will use blogger’s tagging function to categorize our posts by mode of disappointment. With our incompetence and your help, this could be our primary organizational tool.

Per the subtitle, our “ruminating” aim is to serve as a protracted but constructive complaint with various public policy status-quos. Per “digressing,” we won’t hazard a guess, but imagine you’ll know it when you see it.